Gale Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

573 
FZAK52 PAFG 062204
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-071645-
104 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 986 MB LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE
YUKON DELTA FILLING TO A 990 MB LOW BY 9PM FRI. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-071645-
NORTON SOUND-
104 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-071645-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
104 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-071645-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
104 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-071645-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
104 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RL/JK FEB 09

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
543 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
985 LOW NEAR CAPE ROMANZOF MOVING INLAND NEXT 18 HOURS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENT QUITE A RAGGED LOOKING
SYSTEM...WITH ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIP LARGELY FALLING APART.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA EVEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LOW
ALOFT DRIFTS FROM WESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC ISLANDS TO NORTH OF
WRANGEL ISLAND.

LONG RANGE IS A DIFFERENT STORY...LARGE SWINGS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN LEAD TO A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE BEST AGREEMENT IS ACROSS THE ARCTIC WHERE THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ALL TAKE AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND MIGRATE IT BACK TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
WHERE IT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OUT OF PHASE ACROSS THE BERING SEA NEXT
WEEK WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES THAT SLIDE EAST INTO THE
GULF OF AK WITH TIME. AGREE WITH THE HPC THAT USING AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IS PROBABLY ABOUT THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION...AS SMALL SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE.
TO HIGHLIGHT THE UNCERTAINTY THE ENSEMBLE MOS HAS THE LARGEST
STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT I HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME SHOWING UP
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURE SPREADS OF OVER 30
DEGREES SHOWING UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINLY WED THROUGH FRI MADE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO.

NORTH SLOPE...KEPT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES GOING FOR TODAY IN
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES.

WEST COAST...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO HALF A MILE AT GAMBELL...WE
HAVE MORPHED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ZONE 213 TO A WINTER
WEATHER TO CAPTURE BOTH THE WIND CHILL AND BLOWING SNOW. ALSO
MARGINAL WIND CHILLS FOR ZONE 207 CONTINUE. HAVE ENDED ALL WESTERN
INTERIOR ADVISORIES AS SNOWFALL AS DECAYED INTO SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING AND MORE
WIND CHILL ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.

INTERIOR...DISORGANIZED CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLING. SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF ALASKA MAY THROW SOME SNOW BACK NWWD INTO THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND EXTREME SE INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RT/CB FEB 09