Gale Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
152 AM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE WEST COAST. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WEST
COAST BY THU AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ALOFT NOW OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD
AND WESTWARD...BY FRI THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BERING SEA...AND CHUKOTKA.

THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING NORTH...SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS.

A 968 MB LOW NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST...FILLING TO AROUND 980 MB NEAR
DALL POINT BY EARLY FRI MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER AKZ214-
AKZ215-SOUTHERN AKZ216 WED NIGHT...SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER
OF AKZ216-WESTERN AKZ219-WESTERN AKZ221 THU. IN AKZ215...
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 5-7 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THU...
WILL PUT UP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR AKZ215.

SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING FRI. WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO
APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THU IN THE NORMALLY WINDY
AREAS.

WIND ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
LATER TODAY THROUGH THU...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING 20 OR 25
MPH BY THU AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TO -40F OR COLDER IS LIKELY
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY THU AFTERNOON AS WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE -15F TO -25F RANGE.

ECMF/GFS MODEL RESULTS BEGIN TO DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY SAT AND
BEYOND. UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

RF FEB 09