Gale Warning 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

805 
FZAK51 PAFG 141139
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-150245-
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
983 MB LOW JUST EAST OF KOTZEBUE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND
WEAKEN. 983 MB LOW IN THE EAST BEAUFORT SEA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH AND WEAKEN. STRONG 952 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. IT WILL BE A 966 MB
LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA SUN AM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA WILL BUILD EAST.

$$

PKZ225-150245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-150245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-150245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-150245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

.TODAY...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-150245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
239 AM AKST SAT NOV 14 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

TF/MAR NOV 09

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD TROUGH ALOFT LOCKED IN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH FAST FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA ENEWD INTO THE PANHANDLE. TROUGH
WILL BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED NEXT 24 HOURS BUT REMAIN OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRAMATIC DEEPENING OF A LOW THAT
DEVELOPED OVER BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TODAY...WITH THE LOW JUMPING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL YUKON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 983 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP IN MACKENZIE BAY LATER TODAY BUT SHOULD MOVE
NORTH AND LARGELY NOT IMPACT NORTHEAST ALASKA.

IN THE MID RANGE...NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE YESTERDAY.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN STELLAR AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN
AK WILL REMAIN UNDER A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES. THE
NCEP RMOP AT 192 THROUGH 240 HOURS CONTINUES TO PAINT ALL OF
MAINLAND AK WITH HIGH MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY THAT THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL STEER ANY SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE GULF AND
WILL SPARE NORTHERN AK FROM ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE...AND AREAS DEVOID OF STRATUS
COULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO NEAR RECORD LOWS.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN MORE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR THE WEST COAST...SNOW SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW AREAS THRU THE
WEEKEND. WEST OF 160W AT LEAST...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AS PRESSURES RISE OVER CHUKOTKA...WHILE PRESSURE REMAIN LOW OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.

FOR THE INTERIOR...EXTREMELY HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW AS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW...BUT THIS OUGHT TO BE WINDING DOWN.
HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA STORM LOOKS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW STARTING SATURDAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

RT/CB NOV 09