Gale Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STILL ON TRACK WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FAST AND HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER PACIFIC NW AND WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN HOLDING INTO WEEKEND. LONGWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY POSITIIONED
OVER DATELINE AND NOT CHANGING MUCH. STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING
NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING SLUGS OF WARM AIR NORTH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WHILE CHINOOK FLOW OVER ALASKA RANGE HELPS TO WARM UP THE
EASTERN PORTION EVEN MORE...STILL EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS WED THRU FRI.

SURFACE...STRONG WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA 00Z WED
MOVING TO KUSKOKWIM RANGE CREST AND ALASKA RANGE CREST ABOUT 12Z
WED...THEN TO KOTZEBUE AND ACROSS BROOKS RANGE CREST 12Z
THU...WITH FRONT OCCLUDING WEST OF ANAKTUVUK BY THAT TIME. 979 LOW
FORMING ON FRONT OVER NE NORTON SOUND AND ELONGATING ALONG FRONT
TOWARD BROOKS RANGE. OCCLUSION PUSHING NORTHEAST THEREAFTER SO
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM 120 MILES WEST OF BETHEL TO 60 EAST
OF NOME TO 80 EAST OF KOTZEBUE TO 100 EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY BY 00Z
FRI...LAYING IN AN EXTENDED TROUGH OVER INNER COASTAL AREAS.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL DESPITE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SITUATION. SOME
DIFFERENCE THU BETWEEN GFS AND NAM EGARDING POSITION OF INCOMING
SHORT WAVE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT A MINOR ISSUE AT THIS POINT.
PROBABLY OF MORE CONCERN IS THE GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR FAIRBANKS
APPEAR TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY SO WILL FAVOR NAM NUMBERS THOUGH
MAYBE A TAD COOLER.

NORTH SLOPE SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP ENOUGH WED EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS THU OR THU NIGHT WHERE FRESH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.

HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ZONES 212 214 215 AND 216
WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SNOW THEN FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THROUGH WED. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FARTHER
NORTH SO HAVE POSTED WATCHES FOR ZONES 217 219 AND 218 (EAST OF
CHANDALAR LAKE). ZONES FARTHER WEST MAY NOT HAVE AS SEROUS
WEATHER...FAR WESTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN IN COLDER AIR AND WILL
HAVE SOME NORTH WINDS BUT NOT AS MUCH SNOW POTENTIAL...WHILE
ZONES 208 209 210 211 MAY GET ENOUGH SNOW BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
IN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS.

HAVE CONTINUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON...AND ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THEM WED NIGHT AND FRI.
ZONE 223 HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

JL JAN 09