Wind Chill Advisory 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOWS NEAR HUDSON BAY AND SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A LARGE LOW REMAINS
SOUTH OF SHEMYA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING AND OVER ALL OF INTERIOR ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING AND WARM AIR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE THE BREEDING
GROUND FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITH SERIOUS TIMING ISSUES. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE EC WHICH KEEPS THE LARGE LOW SPINNING
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THROUGH SAT BEFORE MOVING IT CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS ON SUN. A SMALL LOW WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SAT EVENING. A THIRD LOW DEVELOPS SAT MORNING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AND
MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF TO SE AK BY SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE
NORTHERN GULF LOW WILL DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THROUGH EARLY SAT WHEN THE BERING RIDGE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
ALEUTIANS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN FALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
AIR AND ONLY HAVE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

FOR SW AK...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE GULF LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE COAST
AROUND CORDOVA TODAY...ALONG WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES
SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS FOR A FEW DAYS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A
DRYING TREND AS THE LOW DISSIPATES AND THE LOW RACING ACROSS THE GULF
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL KEEP A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CHAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
MAINLAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNTIL THE
NEXT LOW SPREADS SNOW INTO THE AREA AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 129 130 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 185
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 140 141 150 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JAN 09