Storm Warning 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

149 
FZAK61 PAFC 060105
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE GULF FRI AND SAT.
$$

PKZ351-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 061227
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1002 MB LOW AT 60N 144W MOVES ON SHORE NEAR 60N 140W FRI EVENING
AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W TO NW WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W TO NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W TO NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT 
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 070031
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20T. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 071224
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW TO SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST WED MAR 4 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE...A 974 MB STORM FORCE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES IN
BEHIND THE RIDGE. A 160 KNOT JET LOCATED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS
TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES ARISE PERTAINING TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
HINT AT A MORE ROBUST TROUGH FORMING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...WHICH COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
PRECIP TYPE AND INTENSITY FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DUE TO
CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BRING A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY...BEFORE WARM AIR CHANGES PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. SNOW WILL
PREDOMINATE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...COLD ADVECTION WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AS WELL...IMPACTING
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT...AND WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WARNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ISLANDS. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS AND MORE
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...MAINLY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN
EFFECT. DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF TALKEETNA AND THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX EXPECTED
ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MODERATE OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME HAVE LEFT AN ADVISORY OUT...ALTHOUGH THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY WANT TO
REVISIT THIS ISSUE. AS AFOREMENTIONED...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MORE INTENSE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THIS TROUGH WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT THE TRANSPORT OF WARMER AIR FROM
TURNAGAIN ARM INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...AS WELL AS INCREASE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MAINLAND FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER OUT WEST WITH MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING...145
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...151
         FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...161
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 140 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
                        176 180 352 411
         STORM WARNING...179 185 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH MAR 09