Storm Warning 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 150018
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 53N 176W MOVES TO 58N 164W AND WEAKENS TO 982 MB
SUN MORNING. THIS LOW THEN MOVES INLAND SUN AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW
NEAR 49N 170E SUN AFTERNOON MOVES TO 52N 162W AND WEAKENS TO 997 MB
MON.

$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS
SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH ABOUT SUN NIGHT. SOLUTIONS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
BEYOND THIS PONIT OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA.

.UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. BROADENING UPPER
CENTER OVER EASTERN RUSSIA ACTS AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR DEVELOPING
WAVES MOVING ACROSS ASIA/NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
AND SW MAINLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH ALTERNATE STORM SYSTEMS OUT WEST. CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD NOT BE AS TURBULENT WAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGES
TRANSIT THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT. SO WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT.
GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A STRONG FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IT LOOKS THIS ONE WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER AIR SO INITIAL BURST OF SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN OVER
THE WESTERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND BECOME MIXED OVER THE KENAI
PEN/PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.WEST...STORM CENTER NEAR ST. MATTHEW ISLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
MOVES OVER THE SEWARD PEN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH AT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND IS WEAKENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN/SNOW APPROACHING THE SW COAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT ON TH BACKSIDE OF
TROUGH. NEXT BIG STORM DEVELOPING SW OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES SOUTH OF
ADAK SAT MORNING AND SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS SUN NIGHT. THIS CENTER
THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES TO ALONG THE SW COAST NEAR BETHEL SUN
AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND THE AK PEN SAT UNTIL THE WARM AIR MOVES
IN AND MIXES OR CHANGES THE SNOW TO RAIN. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY SAT MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT/LOW CENTER.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS LOW CENTER
MOVES TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PROBABLE
OVER THE PRIBILOFS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND WIND DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO END BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN THE PRIBILOFS SAT EVENING...BUT MAY REDEVELOP SUN MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM OVER THE SW MAINLAND...SO WILL SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
SAT NIGHT...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR BLIZZARD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULTANT STORM TRACKS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS ALREADY FORMING AND
WILL AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS LATE THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 191 AND BLIZZARD WATCH 195.
MARINE...STORM 172 AND 175
GALES 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 176 179 185.

RMC FEB 09