Storm Warning 285, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180156 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
450 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

UPDATED 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 LOW WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL COOK INLET AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
BY FRI NIGHT. A 996 MB LOW 30 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT EXCEPT W 35 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY...EXCEPT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
450 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50
KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181250
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 993 LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT. A 999 MB LOW WILL FORM 40 NM SOUTH
OF SEWARD THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE 55 NM SE OF CORDOVA LATE
TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE THIS
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR WHITTIER THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE EVENING THEN SE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES THIS MORNING. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190011
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN GULF EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE EVENING...BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT BY LATE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM MODEL WAS BY FAR THE BEST FOR THE LAST
SNOWFALL AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL ESPECIALLY IN THE COOK INLET REGION
WHERE IT WAS THE ONLY MAJOR MODEL TO DETECT THAT MESO LOW AS WELL AS
HAVING THE SHORT WAVE THAT DROPPED MORE SNOW OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU VALLEY LAST NIGHT. THE NAM SHOULD REMAIN THE BEST ONE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND AROUND THE NORTHERN
GULF.
ALL THE MODELS ARE DOING FINE OUT WEST IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE
LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS A
MESS WITH ALL THE MODELS. THE NAM IS TOO FAR WEST INITIALLY AND THE
ECMWF FAILS TO DEVELOP THE SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS PROBABLY THE BEST BET AT THIS
TIME. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN TERRIBLY STABLE IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IT HAS SETTLED DOWN THE LAST TWO RUNS AND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST MODEL
TO START WITH.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BRINGING DUE
SOUTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTWARD WHILE
COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW THAT WAS IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAS BECOME
VERY DIFFUSE WITH AN APPARENT CENTER SOUTHEAST OF SEAWARD AND THE
MESO LOW REMAINING IN COOK INLET. THE MESO LOW IN COOK INLET WILL
REMAIN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG JET STREAM IS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT IS
FEEDING THE LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL
ALSO CAUSE A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW AND MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE BY THEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL REMAIN COLD
AND BREEZY WHILE THAT VERY COLD AIR SPILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

SNOWFALL SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA EXCEPT FOR
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL STILL SEE SOME OVER RUNNING
OVERNIGHT.
SNOW BANDS SIMILAR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE SEEN CIRCULATING INTO
THE MESO LOW IN COOK INLET WHICH HAS BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
WEEKEND MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN STORMY IN THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOWS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A CHINOOK IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 150 155 170 172 185
 STORM 175 176
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 09