Storm Warning 262, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 070025
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 958 MB LOW NEAR 49N 170W WEAKENS
TO 972 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 53N 174W MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS
THEN ABSORBED BY A 973 MB LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR 55N 175E AND
MOVE TO NEAR 57N 170E AT 983 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...
    N OF 56N...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 KT. RAIN AND SNOW   
               SHOWERS.
    S OF 56N...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N OF 56N...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
       S OF 56N...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...WIND BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 071239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 50N 172W WEAKENS TO 973 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
53N 174W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IS ABSORBED BY A 973 MB LOW 
DEVELOPING NEAR 55N 173E. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
SIBERIA. A 983 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 47N 179E TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N OF 56N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. S OF
56N...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT SE 40 TO 50 KT E OF 174W. SEAS
15 TO 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 080023
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 971 MB LOW NEAR 55N 175E WILL
WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD SIBERIA.

$$

PKZ411-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF 56 N...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S. SOUTH OF 56
N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 174 W...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF 174 W...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S.  SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW AT 56N 173E WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD SIBERIA. A
COMPLEX 985 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 47N 179E TONIGHT...THEN MAINTAINS
ITS STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS TO 47N 169W WED NIGHT. ANOTHER 985 MB LOW
MOVES NORTHWEST TO NEAR 52N 173W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 TO 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST PACIFIC
TO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND A TROUGH FROM EASTERN RUSSIA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC TO ABOUT 30N LATITUDE.

ONE STORM FORCE LOW NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS SLOWLY
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS STILL IMPACTING THE
FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH 55 KT WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
WEAKENING OCCLUSION WRAPS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST TO JUST SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT IS WEAKER THAN IT WAS IT IS
STILL PACKING A PUNCH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH 40 TO 65 KT OF
WIND IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST. ANOTHER HURRICANE FORCE
STORM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS GEARING UP TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
TO THIS PAST STORM.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS SHROUDED IN HIGH CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPERIENCING A VERY CALM DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA...AS THE CURRENT BERING LOW EXITS TOWARD
EASTERN RUSSIA THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD BEHIND
IT...HELPING TO SHOVE THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUSION BACK INTO THE
BERING...HELPING TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
STRONG ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST THROUGH
MONDAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEXT BERING STORM. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC LOW OVER THE POLE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE INTO CANADA WHICH WILL HELP THE RIDGE TO RETROGRADE NORTH
AND WEST...BECOMING ANCHORED DIRECTLY OVER THE MIDDLE OF MAINLAND
ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS STORM ALREADY NEAR ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE BERING SEA MONDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA. EVERYWHERE ELSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA...THOUGH WINDS WILL STILL REACH A RESPECTABLE
45 TO 55 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF WARM TROPICAL-LIKE AIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY
AS RAIN. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE OCCLUSION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS STEADY AS THE CURRENT STORM...HOWEVER IF
THIS CHANGES THEN ANOTHER BLIZZARD IS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BLOCKING RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE UPPER JET
WILL HELP DIG THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...HELPING TO BEGIN TO CUT-OFF THE RIDGE AT ITS BASE. SO
INSTEAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CURVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
BERING...IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. WITH A MORE
ZONAL JET WELL TO THE SOUTH...STORMS AFFECTING THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT TWO.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 191.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 181.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY 171.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...150 155 160 165 170 172 179 180.
         GALE WARNING...130 132 138 140 171 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 09