Storm Warning 237, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 190052 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 951 MB LOW 400 NM WEST OF SHEMYA STRENGTHENS TO 948 MB 220 NM 
NORTH OF SHEMYA THU MORNING. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 962 MB 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER 
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING ON THU AND INTO THE
EASTERN BERING ON FRI. 

$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...


.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 
FT BUILDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 40 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 43 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 65 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 47 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 44 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 191251
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 951 MB LOW 125 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 967 MB 200 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI EVENING. A 980 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO
970 MB 125 NM NORTH OF ATKA FRI EVENING.
$$

PKZ150-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-200300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-200300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-200300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT SUBSIDING
TO 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-200300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 36 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 37 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 65 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS 44 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 44 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
35 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-200300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-200300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
550 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING...WHILE A LARGE TROF REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND GULF OF AK. THE UPPER-LOW OFF THE S TIP OF KENAI
PENINSULA HAS DIPPED INTO THE GULF OF AK...WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND IT. AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT IS
MOVING WEST AND WEAKENING. OVER THE WESTERN AOR...A LOW 550 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA IS DEEPENING TO HURRICANE-WIND FORCE STRENGTH AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN BERING. THIS DEEP LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE AOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CAPTURE THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ADEQUATELY THROUGH THE MID-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AOR CENTER
ON RESOLVING THE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF OF AK. IN GENERAL THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
TOWARDS MIDDLETON ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN. THE MEAN
UPPER-TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIP SOUTHEAST AND CARRY WITH IT MUCH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND. FURTHER WEST...MODELS
HAVE THE STRONG LOW HANGING AROUND THE WESTERN BERING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE WITH REGARDS TO A TRIPLE
POINT LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY NEAR KODIAK AND ITS
PATH AS IT WORKS INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS EMPLOYED IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH A TREND TO THE EC SOLUTION BY THE MID-RANGE
PERIOD IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND DOWN THROUGH THE
S KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER-LOW. CLOUDS POKING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY...
BUT DEEP MOISTURE NOT AVAILABLE TO YIELD ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEYS...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER COLD AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND THOMPSON PASS WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW IN THE GULF ROTATES AWAY LATE THURSDAY HELPING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
LOW WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS
ALSO DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

.SOUTHWEST...
COLD AND DRY ACROSS SW ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONT FROM STRONG LOW
IN THE BERING WILL BRING MOISTURE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF BRISTOL
BAY...THE KUSKOWIM DELTA AND SOUTHERN AKPEN ON FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
RAIN BEHIND IT. AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND WESTERN MARINE ZONES.
SOLID GALES AND OR STORM-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THE BERING LOW ENTERS THE GULF OF
AK. WITH THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE
FOR SNOW...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN MODELS EXIST ON WHERE A TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE THIS WEEKEND...AND HOW IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF. REGARDLESS...AS THE OLD BERING LOW INCHES CLOSER TO THE
MAINLAND...THE DRY ENTRENCHED AIRMASS SHOULD GIVE WAY. CONDITIONS
REMAINING UNSETTLED OVER THE WESTERN AOR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...176
         STORM WARNING...411 412 413 414 175 185
         GALE WARNING...352 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179
                        180
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 130 138 140 141 150 160 165 180 185

JAM NOV 09