Storm Warning 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 101508 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
510 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

UPDATED ZONE 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW 30 NM EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO 80 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WED MORNING WILL MOVE NEAR
ANCHORAGE WED AFTERNOON THEN TO NEAR YAKUTAT BY LATE WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
510 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 9 FT EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...
NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 110011
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE
ALONG 150W WED AFTERNOON AND ALONG 138W EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF
SEAL ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S
OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTER IN THE
EVENING. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. A STRONG WESTERLY JET CUTS ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND
THE NORTHERN BERING BEFORE IT TURNS SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THERE IS A WEAK LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS EXTENDING
A RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVING RAPIDLY EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS DEVELOP OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
BERING SEA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TUESDAY AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA TUESDAY AND THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...SNOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE
SNOW INTO THE SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEYS AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
TONIGHT AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA TUESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY, KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY. MORE SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MAINLY WEST OF THE TALKEETNA AND KENAI MOUNTAINS
WHILE RAIN MOVES INTO KODIAK WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL
WEAKEN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY BUT IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED POCKETS FREEZING WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL RAPIDLY SWITCH TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA...A 994 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 964 MB OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE BERING
AND THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE GULF WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DUE TO A HUGE CONFLICT IN THE MID-RANGE MODELS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE REST OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 129 130 132 138 155 165 170 172 175
         179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09