Storm Warning 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 301247
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL GULF BY MON NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING 45 TO 55 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
18 TO 25 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING 40 TO 55 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING 
18 TO 25 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT.  SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 010024
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED.
$$

PKZ351-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 011236
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-020300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY TUE NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW NEAR 58N 160W TUE NIGHT MOVES
INLAND NEAR 59N 157W EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-020300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-020300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE NAM IS STILL PREFERRED IN THE EAST DUE TO ITS HANDLING OF
THE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PAST
THAT THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE AT THIS TIME IS WITH A LOW IN BRISTOL BAY THAT HAS THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD NORTON SOUND ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF BUT WEAKENING AND
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET ON THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE THEY BOTH
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THE SOLUTIONS THE GFS SOLUTION
THAT WEAKENS THE LOW AND THEN MOVES IT INTO LOWER COOL INLET MAKES
MORE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS A
LARGE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THAT IS BRINGING BLIZZARDS AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THAT REGION. A SMALL LOW IS IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING
NUMEROUS WARNINGS TO THAT REGION. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND SHEMYA HAS VERIFIED
WARNING LEVEL WINDS. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE THE FRONT ELONGATING
AND STALLING OVER THEM WHICH IS CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE MOST
SURPRISING DEVELOPMENT IS THE BLIZZARD THAT FORMED IN SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE UNALASKA AREA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. IT IS RARE TO GET A
BLIZZARD WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT THIS STORM HAS DONE IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS AS THE ONE IN BRISTOL BAY WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY AND BEFORE
THE NEXT ONE MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS ALSO SIGNALS A LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN AS A STRING UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125.
MARINE...STORMS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BERING SEA AND AK PEN AND
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GALES AROUND THE GULF.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 09