Storm Warning 204, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 241318 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

UPDATED ZONE 412 TO ADD LOCALIZED GUSTS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEAK 994 MB LOW NEAR 57N 170W WILL MOVE TO NEAR KIPNUK LATE TUE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 53N 169E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N
173E AT 975 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 56N 176W AT 968 MB
WED MORNING...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 56N 169W AT 976 MB THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E OF 176E...N WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W
OF 176E...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S AND E. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
417 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 KT. SE WIND 15 
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N TO E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 25 TO 35 KT E OF 174W IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S AND W. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S OF 57N...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. N OF 57N...S TO E WIND
15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 57N AND W OF 168W...N TO E WIND 25 KT. ELSEWHERE...SW
WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N OF 57N...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON. S OF
57N...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S OF 56N...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 35 TO 45 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF 56N...SE TO NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 250012
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 58N 168W WILL MOVE TO 59N 164W LATE TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE NEAR KIPNUK EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 979 MB LOW NEAR
53N 173E WILL MOVE TO 55N 172W WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 970 MB...THEN
WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 57N 164W THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 30 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 20 KT S OF 55N.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT N 35 KT E OF 174W IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT E OF 173W IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...W OF 176W...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. E OF
176W...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 55N 175W WILL MOVE TO 56N 170W AT 971 MB WED
EVENING...THEN MOVE TO 56N 162W AT 980 MB THU AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MOVING ASHORE THE SOUTHERN AKPEN EARLY FRI MORNING. A 985 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 57N 176W THU EVENING...AND MOVE TO 54N 175W AT 983 MB
FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N OF 58N...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. S OF 58N...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N OF 56N...NE WIND 35 KT. S OF 56N...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W OF 174W...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF 174W...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT BY
LATE MORNING. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT W 25 TO 35 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N OF 56N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 56N...S WIND 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 58N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 58N...S WIND 20
KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT W OF 169W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S OF 57N...W WIND 25 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS S. N OF 57N...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S OF 57N...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
57N...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

.ANALYSIS/UPPER LEVELS...COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A BROAD LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH MULTIPLE STRONG WAVES ROTATING
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. THE FIRST STORM IS MOVING ONSHORE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...A 971 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE NEXT STORM IS STILL DEVELOPING AROUND 45N AND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF. A
THIRD WAVE WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE IS JUST SPINNING UP OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FIRST
LOW MOVING INLAND TODAY. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHIFT IN THE
GRADIENT ARE ALSO ALL WELL COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ATTENTION
TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
LEAVING THE NAM AS THE OUTLIER. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING. A NICE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SET UP AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND
UP COOK INLET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THE MODELS DIFFER ON IS THE
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE BEING THROWN OVER THE CHUGACH RANGE AND WHERE
EXACTLY THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
WOULD PUT SNOW BACK IN ANCHORAGE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

OUT WEST...LARGE DIFFERENCES ARISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY WHEN A SERIES
OF LOWS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER LARGE 970ISH LOW NEAR BRISTOL
BAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND WHERE THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY PUTTING THIS LOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT NEW GFS SOLUTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM TO BEGIN IN A
COUPLE HOURS IS STILL LOOKING GOOD. 971 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
COOK INLET WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ALLOW THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM. SOME OF THESE WINDS
WILL BEND NORTHWARD AND MAKE IT INTO ANCHORAGE...RESULTING IN A GUSTY
EVENING WITH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH IN TOWN...STRONGEST ALONG THE INLET.
WEST OF THE CHUGACH RANGE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED DURING THIS
EVENT...ONLY EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN BECOMES ORIENTED
NORTH/SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE SLOWLY MAKING
PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA RESULTING IN SNOW FROM BRISTOL BAY
UP TO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE DEFORMATION MOVES
INLAND...ALLOWING FOR MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN FOG AND
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
BERING SEA WATERS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE ALL ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS...INCLUDING THE PRIBILOFS. LONG WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101
MARINE...STORM 175 176
        GALES 120 130 132 150 155 170 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 09