Storm Warning 202, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 220006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 MB LOW AT 57N 142W WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TO 
57N 135W SUNDAY MORNING. A STRENGTHENING 976 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 51N
149W SUNDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO 58N 142W MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 221219
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE 976 MB LOW AT 52N 151W WILL MOVE TO 56N 148W AT 964 MB
SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 976 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 148W ON TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ351-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT SHIFTING TO SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 230001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW AT 54N 149W WILL MOVE TO 58N 148W SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 974 MB AND MOVE TO 60N 152W MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING INLAND. A 972 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N 147W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...WIND BECOMING SW WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH

SAT NIGHT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PROBLEMS ARISE AFTER THIS AS THE NAM
BECOMES THE OUTLIER WITH THE NEXT STORM TO ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE GFS MODEL IS CONVERGING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION BY BRINGING
A STRONG LOW CENTER INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  BY MON
AFTERNOON THE 12Z ECMWF CARRIES THE CENTER INTO THE INTERIOR...WHICH
IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE OOZ RUN WHICH HOLDS THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
GULF. THE 12Z GFS TENDED TOWARD THIS POSITION...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THAT TREND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN
THE LONG TERM AS MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY.

UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE NE PACIFIC AND
ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LONG WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN
US MOVES EAST AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND SUN EVE. THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND RETROGRADES TO SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ANADYR SUN NIGHT. STACKED CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WEAKENS AS DEVELOPING WAVE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES
TO OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT/SUN SETTING UP SWLY FLOW OVER
THE MAINLAND. YET ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC SUN AND
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.EAST...TRIPLE POINT CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST MOVEMENT AND WEAKEN. WEAK LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOUTH OF
THE KENAI PEN IS PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND HAS ENHANCED
THE WINDS OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTH GULF. SNOW SHOULD
BE TAPERING OFF AT KODIAK THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TIPPLE POINT MOVES
EAST. SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW HOLDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL
WORK INLAND IN SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WITH WEAK MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE
GULF. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SAT NIGHT...BUT NEXT
SURGE COMES IN EARLY SUN AS FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF SUN NIGHT/MON AS A STRONG
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. MAJORITY  PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH DOWN-SLOPE
CONDITIONS INLAND. WARMER AIR WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

.WEST...A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY IS PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS NORTH. STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS STACKED
STORM FORCE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS CENTER AS IT
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY SUN NIGHT. THIS CENTER
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS THROUGH MON. ASSOCIATED FRONT
BRINGS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE SW ALASKA COAST...ESPECIALLY
BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CAUSE TIMING ISSUES. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS SUCH THAT INCREASED CLOUDS
AND POPS WITH SOME WARMING ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEAK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155,180,170,171,172,175,176, AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 09