Storm Warning 198, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 111216 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2009

CORRECT ZONES 412 413

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW AT 63N 167W WILL MOVE TO 66N 162W AT 960 MB THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A 1001 MB LOW AT
60N 174E THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 61N 174W LATE THU MORNING AT 
994 MB. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 59N 164W THU AFTERNOON AT 993 MB THEN
TO 58N 146W AT 983 MB BY LATE THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 25 T0 30 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 
21 TO 27 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN STORM CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT THE MID-TERM SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TOGETHER THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN MAINLAND IS ALSO
PROPAGATING EASTWARD.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
HAD DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA STORM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WEDNESDAY, THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT, THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF, THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. ELSEWHERE,
AREAS SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE UPPER
COOK INLET LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG WEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA...SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE LOW AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
MARINE...STORM 180
         GALE 120 121 125 129 130 132 140 155 160 165 170
         172 175 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09