Storm Warning 153, NWS Anchorage, AK

963 
FZAK51 PAFC 112214
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121400-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 45 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE 
TO 45 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT MORNING AT 1001 MB 
AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW WILL FORM 50 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-121400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...WEST WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BECOMING 2 FT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-121400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED THIS MORNING...WHICH MEANS THAT IT SHOULD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST.  BY TONIGHT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A MERE SHADOW OF ITS FORMER SELF...WHILE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN AK TODAY.  THIS MEANS THAT THE GREATEST AREA
OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN
AREA OVER TO THE WEST...ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF RUSSIA TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
MID RANGE.  IN THE SHORT TERM THE GFS WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME NAM USED TO BRING IN MORE DETAIL OVER THE
MAINLAND.  AFTER ABOUT 00Z WEDS THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGAN TO DIFFER
MORE IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH OUT WEST THEY WERE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  GFS/EC HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
TODAY WAS NO DIFFERENT.  MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGION HAS NOT
BEEN STELLAR WITH EITHER MODEL...SO CONSENSUS WAS TO LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS MOST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BROUGHT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH IT
HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING THE WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED.  GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE LOW PUSHES
NORTHWARD AND WINDS CIRCULATING THE DEEP PRESSURE CENTER FORM A
BARRIER JET FROM YAKUTAT THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND.  THE MAIN OCCLUSION HAS PASSED WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND
IS NOW OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA...BUT THERE IS STILL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.  INLAND...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.  IN FACT...SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE GENERALLY
UNSTABLE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  AFTER WINDS DECREASE TODAY THEY SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FINALLY INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ONLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

WESTERN ALASKA...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTER ALEUTIANS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL
WEAKEN IN TRANSIT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST.
ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN PERVADING
THE AREA...THIS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE.  LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TO WESTERN AK AND BRING RAIN WITH IT.  WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
IN THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEST COAST SO NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOR WESTERN ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAPID TRANSITION TODAY FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN.
 THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE EAST COAST OF RUSSIA WILL MOVE
INTO THE BERING SEA TODAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT THAT HAS ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH.  THIS LOW IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG AND IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  BEHIND THIS
LOW A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE GALES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.  WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL
HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE
CONCERN OF LOW STRATUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG TERM FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL TRANSITION
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND THE LOW AHEAD OF IT WILL SHOOT INTO THE
GULF OF AK.  THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE SO NO WIND
WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 09