Storm Warning 150, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 100717 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1115 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

UPDATED ZONES 155 AND 165.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101400-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 30 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THU
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 987 MB AS IT MOVES TO 360 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON. A 974 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK 
MOVES TO 130 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING FRI AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ150-101400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
1115 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS. SEAS 8 FT
TO 12 FT...HIGHEST SEAS FURTHER SOUTH. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
1115 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-101400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.

.THU...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-101400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 101159
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110200-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING ON THURSDAY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING.  ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON A 981 MB
LOW WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF SHEMYA.  IT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 988
MB AND MOVE TO 340 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-110200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE
CHIRIKOF ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE CHIRIKOF ISLANDS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-110200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT...HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF POINT FAREWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-110200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-110200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT W OF PORT HEIDEN. 8 FT E OF PORT
HEIDEN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-110200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-110200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...6 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-110200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-110200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT PACIFIC SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT PACIFIC SIDE...6 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-110200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF THE SEGUAM ISLANDS...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE SEGUAM ISLANDS...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SE
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...11 FT BERING
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-110200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 16
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-110200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-110200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 102321
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 330 NM 
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE 
TO 25 NM SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON AT 989 MB.

$$

PKZ150-111400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-111400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-111400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT.
SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND 35 KT.
SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
S
$$

PKZ185-111400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-111400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LOW IS TRANSITIONING FROM THE
EASTERN BERING SEA ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE PACIFIC
THIS MORNING. A SECOND WEAKER AND MORE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING. WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING BEHIND ONE A WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO KICK UP WINDS FROM PASSAGE CANAL TO PORTAGE
VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH COLD ADVECTION TO PRODUCE GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE EASTERN BERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WINDS
WERE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS MORNING BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER CENTER THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. ONE STATION IN DUTCH HARBOR RECORDED A PEAK WIND GUST
OF 64 KT THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS BRIEF AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY. A STORM FORCE LOW DOWN ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...AROUND 45N 157W...IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF AND WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. A RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING...BUT
FORMER TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN IS ABOUT TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE
UPPER CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM...986 MB ON GFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND 969 MB ON THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONS MATCH AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE COMES INTO AGREEMENT BY THE TIME THE LOW REACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGE AGAIN AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE BERING. BOTH MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS. SINCE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED OFF GFS
WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE GULF...BUT TRACK DOES DIVERGE
A BIT ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
FASTEST SOLUTION. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WIND
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. GFS TRACK HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM
ITS ENSEMBLES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THIS...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BASE FORECAST OFF OF THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE COAST...AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...SO HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BULK OF RAIN FALLING ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST BEHIND THIS FRONT...PRODUCING RAPID PRESSURE RISES...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN STRONG EASTERLIES FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO
PASSAGE CANAL TO TURNAGAIN ARM. THIS RIDING ALONG THE COAST WILL
ALSO SET UP A BARRIER JET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE
GFS SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS CORRECT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
LOW WEAKENS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
MOVES INTO THE GULF (OVERHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW).
THE OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA
RANGE WHERE IT WILL FALL APART FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
OF THE NEXT STORM ACROSS THE BERING SEA...BUT AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST
COAST BY SATURDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PUSHED EASTWARD
AND THE NORTHERN PORTION NORTHWARD. THE UPPER CENTER BACK OVER
THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL THEN MOVE TO THE BERING SEA AND PROGRESS
TOWARD THE EASTERN BERING BY SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS A RIDGE BUILDS
BEHIND IT (AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
PACIFIC).

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN BERING ON SATURDAY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUNDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
MAY ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...BUT ITS TOO EARLY
AT THIS POINT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THOSE WILL BE OF SIGNIFICANCE.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALEUTIANS...BUT THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR CONTINUITY...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TRACKING AND STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS VERY
LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 132 175 176.
         GALE WARNING...125 129 138 155 165 170 171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 09