Storm Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 262311
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271400-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
CITY THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 990 MB FRI AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-271400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...NORTH WIND
30 KT.  SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-271400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST SEAS NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-271400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-271400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E OF BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. W OF BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE
WIND 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E WIND 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. W OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HIGHEST SEAS E OF BARREN ISLANDS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 271150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280200-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MOVES TO 175 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO A POSITION 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY SATURDAY MORNING
AT 1000 MB AND MOVES INTO THE GULF SATURDAY EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-280200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-280200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-280200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-280200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-280200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

CORRECTION FOR TYPO

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM 00Z RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60
HOURS ON PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES.  THOSE FEATURES ARE A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AK THURSDAY AND
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF COLD BAY ON
FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 976 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTERS THIS MORNING FAVORING GFS SOLUTION IN THEIR VARIOUS
PRODUCTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW WHICH DIGS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATER
IN THE WEEK WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND.  HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NO. AM. WILL BLOCK ANY MOVEMENT FURTHER
EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...EXPECTING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.  SOUTHWEST
ZONES SHOULD NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION FROM CURRENT CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
STORM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN AK PEN ON LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  KODIAK ISLAND CAN EXPECT RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EXTENDING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG NE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH A GULF OF ALASKA LOW ON THE WEEKEND AND
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE IN SOUTHCENTRAL. RAIN OR SHOWERS IN COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL BUT GENERALLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE BERING SEA AND HENCE TRANSPORTS
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 165 171 176 179 138  STRM 175 172 120 130 132
FIRE WEATHER...GONE UNTIL NEXT YEAR

JMP AUG 09