Storm Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261847 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270200-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-270200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.

.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...
 
.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE WITH
EXCEPTION OF WEAKENING LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER NEAR KODIAK IS HANDLED WELL BY MODELS.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH NEXT CENTER APPROACHING THE AK PEN
TUE. GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REASONABLE SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL 500 MB PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LONG WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
THE NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN 180 AND 160W HOLDS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH ALONG 130-140W.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...UPPER 980S LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING IS
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND SHOULD BE IN BRISTOL BAY EARLY SUN MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND. GALES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE
AND SEVERAL COASTAL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT STRONG
GAP FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS IN THE MARINE
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUN...HOWEVER GAP FLOWS WILL REMAIN BRISK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH GULF THIS EVENING
WILL GENERALLY FALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SE EXPOSURES. SE
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM IN VALLEY SECTIONS.

.WEST...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED LOWS IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS COASTAL SW ALASKA SUN. THIS CENTER WAS SPREADING
RAIN TO BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE
AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF SW ALASKA TONIGHT. SW ALASKA
WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MON AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVE NORTH...HOWEVER MOISTURE SPREADS BACK INTO THE AK PEN AND
BRISTOL BAY SUN NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER LOW CENTER MOVES TOWARD DUTCH
HARBOR AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HEADS TOWARD SW ALASKA. STRONG GAP FLOWS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISH SUN WITH WEAKENING LOW CENTER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS SW ALASKA AND AK PEN SUN NIGHT AS NEXT LOW
MOVES TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG WAVE HOLDING OUT WEST AND SLOWLY BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE GULF SUGGESTS CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WEST AND
DRYING AND WARMER IN THE EAST BY MID/LATE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 121 AND 125.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 140
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 141.

RMC JUL 09