Storm Warning 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 212301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221400-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB LOW 350 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 375 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL THU AFTERNOON AT 995 MB. A 981 MB LOW MOVES TO 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-221400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-221400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING SIDE.

.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-221400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
527 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST AREA OF DIFFERENCES INVOLVE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR COLD BAY ON THURSDAY AND
THEN EITHER HEADS UP THE BRISTOL BAY COAST OR TRACKS INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GFS HAS CHANGED TO THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT IS
AGREED UPON BY THE EC AND THE NAM. HOWEVER THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER
WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
THAT DEVELOPS A STRONG CLOSED LOW. AT THIS TIME PREFER A GFS-LIKE
TRACK BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS FEATURE TO AN OPEN WAVE THAT MOVES OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OF THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS INTACT AS EVERYTHING SLIDES TO THE EAST.
THE JET...ALBEIT WEAK AT LESS THAN 100 KT...CONTINUES TO TRAVEL UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE THAT IS NOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS IS
MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FRONT IN THE
BERING SEA IS BETWEEN ATKA AND DUTCH HARBOR AND IS BRINGING
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND STRONG
GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS ON TRACK
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE FAVORED AREAS TODAY INCLUDING COPPER
RIVER DELTA...THOMPSON PASS...RESURRECTION BAY...AND THE BARREN
ISLANDS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ON THE SLOW DECLINE TODAY AS LINGERING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF RETREATS AND A COL MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT THE ORIGINAL BERING FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE IT TO SOUTHCENTRAL...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT
DEVELOPS AND RIDES UP THE FRONT WILL BRING THE FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP
TO SOUTHCENTRAL STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TRACK FOR TODAY EVEN
AS HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ARRIVES TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT RAIN... OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW... SHOULD OCCUR OVER BRISTOL BAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE DELTA WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING VERY
MINIMAL. ALL WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
STORM FORCE EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE MINIMUM STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...PARENT LOW OF BERING SEA FRONT LINGERS AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS IN THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE NEXT STRONG LOW ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AT THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.  FOR THE MAINLAND...BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION TO MOST LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 170
         GALE 155 160 165 171 172 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD APR 09