Storm Warning 117, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 090046 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 172

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091400-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB LOW 175 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 45 NM SOUTH OF 
DUTCH HARBOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 979 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-091400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 30 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-091400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-091400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT WED APR 8 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BY FAR THE STRONGEST FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS A STRENGTHENING STORM FORCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEARING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. A
WEAKER NEARLY STATIONARY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS MORNING...TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT CONNECTED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE LOW IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW PERSISTING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN INTO THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE LOW WILL REACH
AMCHITKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF SAND POINT
THURSDAY EVENING. A FRONT WILL STRETCH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW PERHAPS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO
BRISTOL BAY AS THE MAIN LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
AND AKPEN. BESIDES THE OBVIOUS STRONG WINDS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW...AND THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW. WE ARE
JUST GOING TO PUT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT THIS POINT RATHER THAN
ANY BLIZZARD WARNING OR WATCH AS CONFIDENCE ON CONDITIONS GETTING
THAT BAD ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
TWO DIFFERENT WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ONE BEING THE SAINT LAWRENCE LOW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA...THE SECOND
BEING A DYING FRONT BANKED UP AGAINST THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST IN THOSE AREAS. THE
STRONG LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO BRING
PRECIP TO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND DELTA...WITH RAIN MIXING IN NEAR BRISTOL BAY. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SOUTHCENTRAL...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL TRY TO CROSS
THE RANGE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE COOK INLET REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASED CLOUDCOVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT
THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING
SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN FOR KODIAK. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
THE GALE FORCE FRONT APPROACHES...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS
GENERALLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OUT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO SUNDAY AND
THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND
WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 176.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 130 132 138 150 155 170 172 175 179 351
          352 411 412 413.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONES 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY APR 09