Storm Warning 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040038 RRA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

RETRANSMISSION

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041400-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 MB LOW 130 NM EAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1005 MB SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SUN.

$$

PKZ120-041400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 

.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. EAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-041400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 985 MB LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND WESTERN BERING SEA. A LARGE AND ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.
ELSEWHERE...A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW ARE OVER
THE MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL PERFORMANCE IS GOOD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES REGARDING POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEMS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE DUAL LOW SOLUTION FOR THE LOW APPROACHING
THE GULF OF ALASKA. STILL ANTICIPATING THE STRONGEST LOW TO BE TO THE
SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LOW FORMING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND ITS
EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER FOR KODIAK ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE PREVALENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR KODIAK ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OUT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL TRANSLATE INTO QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL BE DISSIPATING TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE AKPEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE GULF LOW.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A ROBUST LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...RESULTING IN A RAIN SNOW MIX
POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE PRIBILOFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STILL EXPECTING THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING JET STREAM. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA WILL SHIFT OVER THE MAINLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE BERING.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE THE LARGE
LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 171
MARINE...GALE...120 130 138 150 155 170 171 172 175 176 185
         STORM...132
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 140 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH APR 09