Storm Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 140016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WED EVENING AND INTO EASTERN
GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...BARREN ISLANDS WEST...E TO NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE
30 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WINDS
30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS A TEMPORARY KINK IN THE STRONG
EAST PACIFIC RIDGE. THE THROUGH IS LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE. A MODERATE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF SOUTH OF CAPE
SUCKLING IS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD YAKUTAT AND THEN INLAND.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN...INCLUDING MCCARTHY...WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS A DEEP
COLD CORE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAX GALE TO MIN
STORM FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW ARE PRODUCING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CREEPING UP AS THIS FRONT GETS CLOSER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL AGREEMENT IS REASONABLE WITH LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MAIN LOW CENTER OUT WEST AS
WELL AS WITH SURFACE LOWS/UPPER WAVES MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
EAST PACIFIC RIDGE. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL ONLY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CORRIDOR FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

DO NOT PARTICULARLY HAVE A FAVORED MODEL SOLUTION. WILL GENERALLY
STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL AIR AND MOISTURE ORIGINATING DOWN AROUND 30N
NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE WARM AIR WILL INITIALLY
OVERRUN THE COLD ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THAT AIR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. INITIAL OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SPREADING OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START AS
SNOW MOST PLACES...BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TUESDAY. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE SO WARM THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BECOME A THREAT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS WHERE THE ARCTIC AIR IS DEEPEST. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THEN UP ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION. AS EACH OF THESE MOVES NORTHWARD THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH...ALASKA...AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION VERY LIGHT IN THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
SEE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL HAVE
TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING OF CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS IN
QUESTION...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
HOW FAST THE WARMING WILL OCCUR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WONT MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE
WARMED TO 34 DEGREES AT BOTH ADAK AND ATKA AND VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE...WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
EAST OF THE REGION...TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA...PUSHING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD AND CHANGING PRECIPITATION
TO RAIN. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR WILL HEAD BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD MOVE BACK IN...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHARACTER WILL BE SHOWERY SO LOW VISIBILITIES WOULD
NOT LAST LONG. IN AREAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE STEADIER TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK TO TOWARD
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MID WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY WEEKS
END. ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS LOW PRODUCING THE
USUAL STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE PROGRESSING EASTWARD A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
ALLOWING A COLD TROUGH TO MOVE BACK INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.
HOWEVER...NOT READY TO BUY COMPLETELY INTO THIS YET SINCE MODEL
BIAS IS TO CHANGE A STABLE PATTERN SUCH AS THIS TOO QUICKLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187 191.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176
                      179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 09