Small Craft Advisory 982, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
SLIGHT FAVORING TOWARD THE NAM IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
MODELS HOLD TOGETHER WELL IN THE EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH A STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT IS A STRONG FEATURE ON ALL THE
MODELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY VARY IN LOCATION OF THE MAIN
CENTER BY ALMOST 700 MILES DIFFER IN PRESSURE BY NEARLY 20 MB AT THAT
TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WITH A BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BETWEEN THEM BRINGING STRONG
DUE SOUTH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE MAIN
JET EXITS ASIA OVER JAPAN AND HEADS DUE EAST UNTIL IT STARTS TO BEND
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE 150W AND 170W MERIDIANS...AND WEAKENS FRO ITS
PEAK AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE JET STREAM LOCATION OVER
THE STATE IS SEEN CLEAREST IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE STORM IS WEAKENING THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS BRINGING SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS TO NEARBY AREAS. THE
ENTIRE BERING SEA REGION IS IN NORTH TO WEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAS SEEN A LOT OF AREA NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH RAIN
BUT THAT SHOULD BE TURNING BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM AIR
MOVES EASTWARD AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. MOUNTAIN
PASSES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS IN SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK THE RETROGRESSION OF THE
ALEUTIAN LOW AND BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER WILL CAUSE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OF MOST OF THE AREA. THIS
WARM CORE RIDGE WILL REDUCE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN  YET THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT HOW COLD IT WILL GET AT NIGHT.
THIS SHIFT WILL ALSO PUT THE BERING SEA IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE
STORM TRACK FROM THE DUE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 145.
MARINE...STORM 120 125.
         GALE 129 132 165.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
104 PM AKST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HEAVY SNOW       20 N SKWENTNA           62.28N 151.40W
12/01/2009  E0.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            29 INCHES NEW SNOW, 37 INCHES ON GROUND.

&&

STEPETIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
113 PM AKST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HEAVY SNOW       35 W BIG LAKE           61.52N 151.02W
12/01/2009  E0.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH FOOT OF MT. SUSITNA. 20 INCHES NEW SNOW.

&&

STEPETIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
116 PM AKST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HEAVY SNOW       20 SW TALKEETNA         62.13N 150.53W
12/01/2009  E0.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMBER LAKE REPORTED 18 INCHES NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

STEPETIN