Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO BE IN CONFLICT OVER THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE SOLUTION OF A WEAKER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE EC MODEL WHICH HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN THE 00Z RUN, HAS
NOW SLOWED AND SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE LOW. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OTHER PARTS OF THE AOR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...UPPER HIGH NEAR THE MCKENZIE DELTA HAS BEEN SEPARATED
FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF BY A TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA. AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BERING SEA IS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

AT THE SURFACE...A 993 MB LOW 60 MILES EAST OF SAINT PAUL CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR, KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...THE UPPER HIGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL RECONNECT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
SATURDAY THEN GET REABSORBED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING AND BECOME NEAR STATIONARY BY SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 993 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING AND WEAKEN TO 1006 MB SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE YUKON DELTA, KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, KENAI PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF AREA
TONIGHT THEN BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND LATE SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...SNOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST WITH THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BECOME SNOW SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
I'M STILL SKEPTICALLY OF THE LONG RANGE PROGS BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW IN THE GULF SUNDAY WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS. ONE PART WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE OTHER WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. THE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A NEW STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM JAN 09