Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO THEIR
SEPARATE WAYS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS FAIRLY LOW BUT HPC
PREFERS THE EC MODEL IN THE MID TERM, SO THAT THE WAY WE ARE GOING TO
GO.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA IS BEGINNING TO GET PINCHED OFF
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AS A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY DIGS INTO EASTERN ALASKA. THE REST OF THE RIDGE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS
BEGINNING TO FILL-IN AS THE INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS MORE ENERGY IS
ABSORBED BY THE LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEATHER FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WESTERN GULF HAD BEGUN TO WEAKEN. AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW HAVE MOVED INTO BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA
OVERNIGHT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER HIGH FORMING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
NE PACIFIC WILL FLATTEN A BIT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MOVED NORTH AND WEST TO REPLACE IT SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE HIGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL SPREAD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY SATURDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE 980 MB LOW
SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT
THEN TURN NORTHWEST TO NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1005
MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY, KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT, INTO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, KENAI PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY AND WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN ALASKA, SUSITNA VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCAL GUST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST, THE REST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
FRIDAY, THEN BECOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BERING SEA...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY
THE BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOST OF THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTION IS LOW, BUT IT LOOK LIKE THE
NEXT STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY. THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 138, 140, 150, 155, 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09