Small Craft Advisory 773, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL THROUGH THE FIRST FOUR
OR FIVE DAYS. THE GFS NAM ECMWF AND UKMET ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN EITHER
WHICH FURTHER ESTABLISHES CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH THE JET STREAM
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE SYSTEMS ROLLING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON CHOI WAN ARE LIFTING OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY BRIEFLY TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
MONDAY.
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE STATE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY A LITTLE WEST OF ATTU. THE LARGE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA MONDAY AND BRING A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WITH GALE
AND STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO DROP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO
1000 FT OR LESS IN MANY AREAS. WHILE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN
COLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN MOST PLACES THERE WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT SHOULD WARM UP THE AREA SO THAT IT IS ALL RAIN
EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND REACHES THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 185.
         STORM 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 09