Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
GFS IS PREFERRED SINCE IT IS THE MOST CONSISTENT. THE NEW EUROPEAN
HAS FALLEN OUT OF FAVOR BECAUSE IT DEPARTS RADICALLY FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS STILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND PRODUCED AREAS OF SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.

A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF. A STRONG 980 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI
PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT WILL STALL OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
EASTERN GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TUESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL...
AREAS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COOK
INLET TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. SKY WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY. STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRING
RAIN AND SNOW AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150, 170, 172, 175, 179, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09