Small Craft Advisory 659, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING IS A WEAKENING FRONT OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANCHOR LOW NORTH OF THE
BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS MAKING
FOR VERY NICE WEATHER THROUGHOUT MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL...YET IS ALSO
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN INTERIOR AREAS SUCH AS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL IN THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING SEA REGIONS AND IS SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO DO
REASONABLE...A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND IS EVIDENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MODELS RUNS IN REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT TRANSITS TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF AS A GALE FORCE LOW
BY TUESDAY. AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE
ARCTIC LOW AND DROPS INTO THE GULF TUESDAY...MODELS FALL APART IN THE
BERING WHEN THE REMNANTS OF A TYPHOON NEAR JAPAN MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MORNING FORECAST...HAVE
GENERALLY FAVORED THE EUROPEAN MODEL DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS. IN ADDITION...HPC GUIDANCE WAS INCLUDED IN
THE BLEND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA NORTH TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS
WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS IT
WEAKENS...MEANING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
AS THE CURRENT FRONT PUSHES EAST A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...AS A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FROM THE BERING AND SHOULD MAKE
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TO START THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING BEFORE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY THAT PERSISTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BEYOND MIDWEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
NEVERTHELESS...LONG TERM MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD AUG 09