Small Craft Advisory 656, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 220059 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

UPDATED ZONE 172

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221400-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE ON SHORE FRI
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRI NIGHT AND
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH SUN. A 996 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 175 NM
WEST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
500 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WE HAVE DISCUSSED THE
PROBLEMS THE MODELS WERE HAVING LOCKING ONTO THE LOW THAT WOULD
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY. INITIAL SOLUTIONS HAD IT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND THEN IT WAS MOVED FARTHER SOUTH AND MODELS KEPT
OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. NOW THE REASON FOR THE PROBLEM IS MORE
CLEAR. THE MAIN LOW DID INDEED DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. HOWEVER
A SIGNIFICANT TRIPLE POINT IS ON THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGING RAIN
FROM CORDOVA EASTWARD. THIS SPLIT IN ENERGY IS THE LIKELY REASON THE
MODELS COULD NOT LOCK ON TO THIS SYSTEM CORRECTLY.
NOW THAT THE LOW HAS TIPPED ITS HAND THE MODELS HAVE LOCKED ON AND
ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH IT AND THE OTHER FEATURES IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND A WEAK UPPER
HIGH BETWEEN THEM CREATE THE PATTERN FOR TODAYS WEATHER. THE UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IN THE GULF DEVELOPED AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER EASTERN RUSSIA INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY.
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH HAS CLEARED OUT A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND THE TRIPLE POINT SOUTH OF CORDOVA IS RUNNING AT A NEAR
STANDSTILL WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER MAKING VERY LITTLE
PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD WILL FORCE
THE TRIPLE POINT AREA TO FOLLOW SUIT TOMORROW AND END THE
PRECIPITATION FROM CORDOVA EASTWARD AT THAT TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS IS BEING HELPED BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THAT AREA.
OTHER THAN LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST UNDETECTABLE AT
THE SURFACE BUT IS EASILY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS A LOT LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WEEK.
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WITH COLD FRONTS PULSING THROUGH
THE AREA OUT OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 09