Small Craft Advisory 613, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050153 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
550 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

UPDATED ZONE 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051400-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WED. A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK CITY TUE 
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-051400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING 
TO S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-051400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT LATE 
THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-051400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ130-051400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BARREN ISLAND NORTHWEST...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING 
TO E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. SOUTHEAST OF BARREN
ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-051400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-051400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...
NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051400-
KACHEMAK BAY
550 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE WIND 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051145
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060200-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
INLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF WED EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-060200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-060200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-060200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-060200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-060200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-060200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-060200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...THE RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST WHILE
A LARGE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST. A LARGE LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THIS LOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE AKPEN AND SOUTHWEST AK INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. A TRIPLE POINT LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL
SOLUTIONS AGREEING ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES. DIFFERENCES ARISE SHORT TERM
WITH REGARDS TO THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING IN THE WESTERN GULF...AS
WELL AS HOW THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL TRANSITION INTO THE GULF. THE
NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMATION THE
BEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...MOVING
TO NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WHILE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS FAVORED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER
HANDLING OF THE LOW MOVING FROM THE BERING INTO THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.SOUTHWEST...
RAIN AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE BERING LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOFS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO
NAIL DOWN WITH INDIVIDUAL FEATURES THIS FAR OUT...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141

NRH AUG 09