Small Craft Advisory 596, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 302319
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311400-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 50 NM NORTHEAST OF
ATKA AT 998 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-311400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-311400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-311400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...E OF TOGIAK...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. W OF TOGIAK...W
WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-311400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-311400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-311400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...E OF UNALASKA...S WIND 15 KT. W OF UNALASKA...VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT PACIFIC SIDE...2 FT BERING SIDE. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT PACIFIC SIDE...3 FT BERING SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT PACIFIC SIDE...6 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING
SIDE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-311400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-311400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT PACIFIC SIDE...2 FT BERING
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT W OF ATKA...4 FT E OF ATKA. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT. W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W OF ATKA...NE WIND 20 KT. E OF ATKA...VARIABLE WIND 15
KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-311400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST
OF 180. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT ON THE BERING SIDE TOWARDS
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-311400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...5 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT E OF SHEMYA...5 FT W OF SHEMYA. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT E OF SHEMYA...5 FT W OF SHEMYA.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-311400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4
FT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-311400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 30 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED JUL 29 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW MOVING TROUGH BRISTOL BAY LAST
NIGHT INCREASED IN STRENGTH MORE THAN EXPECTED AND HAS BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS TO NUMEROUS AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND STEADY PRECIPITATION
OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FOR THE PAST DAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS STRONG FROM THE SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THEN
WEAKENS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR THE 170W PARALLEL. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL
DEVELOP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GIVE
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS APPROACHING THE HOOPER BAY AREA AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WHOLE STORM SYSTEM IS WEAKENING BUT STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR CHANNELED
TERRAIN. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL SEE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST.
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS SETTING UP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND EARLY
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE WESTERN
GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING AND THEM MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IN THOSE AREAS AS THIS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CHAKINA FIRE NEAR MCCARTHY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MOST MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR THROUGH THE MID
TERM OF THE FORECAST. A NAM/GFS LOOKS GOOD IN THE SHORT
TERM...TRANSITIONING INTO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY GET A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 125. FLOOD ADVISORY 121.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 09