Small Craft Advisory 539, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 092304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101400-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-101400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-101400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-101400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-101400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-101400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NW OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-101400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-101400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT WED JUL 8 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ALASKA TODAY
RESULTING IN CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM THE
WEST. A LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE IS CAUSING RAIN TO FALL IN A BAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND REBUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY WITH THE GFS FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE APPROACHING GULF LOW. THE GFS ALSO
INDICATES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN
BRIEFLY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES BUT WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
THE REGION AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. CONVECTION
WILL BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE
LOWER TODAY AS THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO REDUCE TEMPERATURES.

HAZE AND SMOKE HAVE WORSENED OVER ANCHORAGE AS A NEW FIRE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA HAS INTENSIFIED AND GENERAL SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS A RESULT OF THE NEW FIRE
WILL FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SOUTHWEST...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH. DRYING OUT SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND
THE TROUGH AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROPAGATES EASTWARD.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PROGRESS NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE WEST. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN/AB JUL 09