Small Craft Advisory 526, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
11 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

MODELS INCONSISTENT SO HAVE DRIFTED TOWARD THE GFS OUT WEST. EAST
DOMAIN LIKES THE EUROPEAN FARTHER OUT IN TIME. EUROPEAN ALSO CAME
INTO LINE LAST NIGHT FOR A TIME WITH RESPECT FOR THE WESTERN DOMAIN.
NAM USED 1ST 3 PERIODS EASTERN DOMAIN.

AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN KODIAK AND 150W. THIS
DEVELOPMENT GOES WELL WITH THE CLOUD SIGNATURE SHOWN ON THE GOES-WEST
LOOP. THIS FEATURE ALSO SHOWS UP BETTER AT 500 MB. LIGHT RAIN
PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY HIGHER ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT IN THE FORECAST. 30% TO 40% IS MORE
REALISTIC AS OPPOSED TO THE 20%S NOW OUT. THEN AGAIN IF NONE OF THE
GAUGES RECEIVE 0.01 RAIN, THEN THE 20% WILL BE THE BETTER FORECAST.
THEREFORE, I WILL LEAVE FORECASTS ALONE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE GULF
SYSTEM WILL GET KICKED SOUTHEAST BY AN INCOMING, WASHING OUT, BERING
SEA FRONT. HIGHER PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD MAKE
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY.

THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA TODAY LIES FROM THE CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLY
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SUSITNA/MATANUSKA VALLEYS AND OVER MOST OF
ZONE 141. GOOD SUNSHINE IN THESE ZONES MAY PRODUCE JUST AS MUCH
ACTIVITY AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING 1 TO 3
DEGREES BEHIND 11 AM READINGS FROM YESTERDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING MARINE BOUNDARY.

LOW MARINE CLOUDS COVER ALL OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND HAVE SPREAD OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS INTO KAMISHAK BAY.
MARINE STRATUS IN COOK INLET AND TURNAGAIN SHOULD BURN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND FOX ISLANDS PRODUCING
MOSTLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MODELS
SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO HIT THE HIGH PRESSURE WALL WHICH
WILL KEEP ALL OF THE WIND AND RAIN OUT IN THE BERING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN REACHING COAST FROM CAPE
NEWENHAM NORTHWARD  LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS LIKELY FOR BRISTOL BAY

AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE STORM WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS ATKA
ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF ST PAUL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM HAS THE ENERGY TO GIVE A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST
BERING AND EVEN THE PRIBILOFS. FRONT TO PUSH PAST DUTCH HARBOR TO ST
GEORGE AROUND 7 TO 8 AM FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW. LOW CENTER PULLS BACK
NORTHWEST TO THE RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 173E FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE, MOSTLY ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NICE SUMMER WEATHER THE
NEXT 4 OR 5 DAYS. ONLY BRISTOL BAY AND THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AN
OCCASIONAL DYING FRONT BRUSH BY FOR CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
FOG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NO WARNINGS/WATCHES
MARINE...GALES AND POSSIBLE STORM ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS SLOWLY DRYING. DEW POINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH
AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR NO FLAGS.

PERCY JUL 09