Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 252304
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261400-
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL DISSIPATE 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL FRI EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-261400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-261400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-261400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-261400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-261400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-261400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU JUN 25 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. GFS AND NAM WERE USED EARLY ON WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED. FORECASTS NOT SHOWING A LARGE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE OBLONG UPPER LOW COMPLEX DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
DUTCH HARBOR. WESTERN PORTION OF THIS LOW IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. POLAR JET
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM SIBERIA INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW.
SUBTROPICAL JET WELL TO THE SOUTH. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THIS LOW IS MAKING IT FAIRLY UNSTABLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING.
THE EASTERN PORTION WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA BUT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH SATURDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW DIMINISHES AND THE AIR ALOFT
MODERATES...AND SLOWLY BECOMES MORE STABLE. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
TAP THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS IT WILL HAVE A
STRONG DIURNAL NATURE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE WITH THIS HIGH WITH
MOST ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY THIS HIGH SHOULD BE WELL SETTLED IN OVER CENTRAL ALASKA.
A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE
WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JUN 09