Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH 120 HRS. THERE
WERE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF. WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND UKMET TO INDICATE FINAL
POSITION SOMEWHERE NEAR CORDOVA BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.
OTHERWISE LEANED TOWARD GFS/EC. LONG TERM FORECAST STILL HAS A LOT OF
KINKS. MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE NEW WAVE PATTERN IN THE BERING.
THEREFORE WENT WITH CONSISTENCY AND DID NOT ALTER MUCH IN THE
EXTENDED.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DISINTEGRATING FRONTAL BAND IS WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS BAND. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS..KODIAK AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE OUTER EDGES OF A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC ARE
BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE GULF. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
SYSTEM WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF BRINGING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD IN AND HELP PUSH THE LOW INLAND NEAR
CORDOVA MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS LOOK FOR A BRIEF WARMUP
ACROSS EASTERN AK THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS IS CURRENTLY FAR SOUTH OF
SHEMYA BUT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS BRINGS SNOW AND WIND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AT IT MAKES ITS
WAY EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO NOT ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE AREA.

FOR SW AK...THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BRING MORE
SNOW..SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND TO THE AK PENN AND BRISTOL BAY TODAY.
CONDITIONS PERSIST...WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
DELTA ON MON. BY MON AFTERNOON THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE EVENTS
WEAKENS IN THE GULF AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...A FRONT WILL BRING SOME MORE SNOW
TO KODIAK ISLAND TODAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE REST OF INLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL DRY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE TODAY.
HOWEVER EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE LOW MOVES TOO FAR EAST WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND UP INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WARMER..WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY BY MIDWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 187
MARINE...GALES 120 140 150 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 140 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09