Small Craft Advisory 452, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT WED JUN 3 2009

CORRECTED TYPO LONG TERM FORECAST...

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LVLS A TROF IS DRAPED THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS. A SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENING THE MENTIONED TROF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ALIGNED FROM SE AK INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND SLOWLY RETREATING
EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW ABOUT 400 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
MORNING IS DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTH. AN ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT
IS ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ALSO
A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF ST MATTHEWS ISLAND IS MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
EASTERN SIBERIA AND QUICKLY FILLING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT CAPTURING THE MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARISING
HOWEVER BY SUNDAY WITH THE EC SOLUTION DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW SOUTH
OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THE GFS A WEAK WAVE. THOUGH THE EC
DEPICTED THIS LOW FOR TWO STRAIGHT RUNS...ITS MOST PRIOR RUN TO RUN
VERIFICATION HAD BEEN FAIRLY POOR AND AS SUCH STEERED CLEAR OF ITS
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS RUN IS NOW CAPTURING A STRONGER LOW
ALBEIT FURTHER EAST. IF THE SUCCESSIVE MORNING RUNS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...REVISIONS TO THE MID-RANGE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED. IN
GENERAL THE GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED SATISFACTORILY AND WERE EMPLOYED
IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PREDOMINANT.
UPPER RIDGE IS RETREATING EAST THOUGH AND AN INFLUX OF
CLOUDINESS/MOISTURE SHOULD RETARD FIRE WX THREAT SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY.
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD KODIAK AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY. FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NW GULF/COOK INLET...BUT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION MAY
STILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATANUSKA VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SOUTHWEST...
RAIN ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO YIELD GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS LOW
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN. LOW WILL YIELD
RAIN AND FOG ACROSS THE PRIBILOFFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CHALLENGES TO FOCUS ON THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND WAVES
EJECTING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND TOWARDS THE MAINLAND NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...138 150 155 160 165 170
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...141

JAM JUN 09