Small Craft Advisory 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MAINLAND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
TO FORM A BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE STORMS IN THE BERING SEA. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE BERING SEA BY
UPPER LOWS OVER SIBERIA AND THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
HAD NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE FEW DAYS AND HAD SPREAD A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST. A BROAD LOW COMPLEX CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO
BRING AREAS OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND, BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SLOWLY WEAKENING TO A RIDGE AND A LOW
COMPLEX OVER SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING NORTH INTO THE AKPEN THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL AND GULF...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND
THE COOK INLET WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING EIGHTY DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER. ACCORDINGLY...A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST...
RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER
PRESSURE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS WILL SHIFT EAST TO LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING MORE RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA
SATURDAY. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS THE
REST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141

NM JUN 09