Small Craft Advisory 438, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY ON
THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF AK FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN FEATURES AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE A
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF.  THE ELONGATED NORTHWEST LOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUCKCHI SEA.  THE GULF LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
SITKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING AS FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER COOK INLET.  AS UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF FORMS ON SATURDAY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IS
ZONAL...EXPECT A DIRTY RIDGE AS THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT FROM THE AK
PEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST...MORE LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LOOKS AS IF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

ALEUTIANS...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST FLOW AS COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM EVOLVES TO
THE SOUTH.  CLOUDS...RAIN...SHOWERS ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD.  DUE
EXPECT SOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT OVER EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN SAT AND SUN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...GULF RIDGE MOVES TOWARD KENAI PEN ON SUNDAY PM.
EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND.

SOUTHWEST...RAIN OR SHOWERS WEST OF BRISTOL DAY MONDAY TURNING TO
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. AIR TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.

ALEUTIANS...CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAGS

JMP MAY 09