Small Craft Advisory 421, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231242 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240200-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL BECOME A 
1007 MB LOW 390 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY SUN NIGHT. A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-240200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. N WIND 10 KT
OR LESS NIGHT AND MORNING. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ125-240200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 INCREASING TO E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL
ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.  
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. TOWARD KAMISHAK BAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT 
OR LESS NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT NW OF 
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 15 KT NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 20 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-240200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI MAY 22 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SIMILAR AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE THROUGH MON.
500MB/SURFACE PATTERNS OVER THE MAINLAND AND GULF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH
TUE. MODELS HOWEVER DIFFER SOME ON THE HANDLING OF THE BERING SEA
RIDGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP. THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDS WEST FROM THE CANADIAN YUKON TERRITORY TO OVER THE NORTHERN
MAINLAND AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PORTION OF
THE RIDGE OVER CANADA IS PINCHED OFF AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND LINKS UP
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA ON SAT NIGHT. THE CUT-OFF
LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF WILL INTENSIFY SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...EXPECT CURRENT PATTERN WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...AND LOW OVER
THE GULF TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW CENTER SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY SOME.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN GULF HIGH WILL PRODUCE GALES
IN THE NORTH GULF AND WESTERN GULF COASTAL MARINE AREAS. EXPECT WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS LOW CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE INTERIOR THERMAL TROUGH AND COASTAL RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. DIURNAL WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ON SUN AS THE
COASTAL RIDGE IF FORECAST TO THE WEAKER. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASING MORE UNSTABLE SAT AND SUN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
INTENSIFIES. SO SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STABILITY INDICES AT THIS
TIME SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE...HOWEVER EARLY 700 MB STEERING FLOW LIKELY TO CARRY
THUNDERSTORMS INTO VALLEY SECTIONS.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START
EARLIER TODAY AS SHORT WAVE TRIGGER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...EASTERN DELTA...AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
COOLER TEMPS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE WESTERN
DELTA.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AK PEN...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WAVES OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 AND 150.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111

RMC MAY 09