Small Craft Advisory 301, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 1011 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WHILE DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE 987 MB LOW
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
BERING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPEN. WEAK RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING. A RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL
DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW IN THE
BERING SEA...AND SUBSEQUENT TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMATION IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA LATE MONDAY. THE GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR CONSTRUCTING
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...DUE TO CONTINUED CONSISTENCY AND
SATISFACTORY INITIALIZATION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE NORTHERN GULF LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW ALONG NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES IN. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KODIAK ISLAND EARLY MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE AKPEN TODAY...WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AND RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES
FURTHER EAST. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG BRISTOL BAY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS. THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL SEE PRIMARILY RAIN AS WARM AIR IS MOST PREVALENT IN
THAT AREA. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW TODAY ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AS WARM
AIR SURGES NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH APR 09