Small Craft Advisory 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 12 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. GFS IS THE
MAIN GUIDANCE IN THE WEST. THE 12Z NAM WAS USED FOR DETAIL PURPOSES
IN THE EAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE STATE TODAY. THE STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA IS ON
TRACK TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST COMBINED WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HAS SET THE
STAGE FOR A LOW TO SPIN UP IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HINCHINBROOK
TONIGHT. IN THE BERING SEA THE JET STREAM LOCATION IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE JET WILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN
PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE COOK INLET
REGION TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF IT DOES
SNOW SOME THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
GULF COAST AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HINCHINBROOK
TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS
AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE MAINLAND
PART OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND WILL BE IN A DRY WINTER PATTERN
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN
THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 155 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 09