Small Craft Advisory 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
105 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.
THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE WEST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AS OF THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE A NARROW
BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WHICH
MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG JET
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING..EXTENDING FROM KING
SALMON SOUTH TO SAND POINT.  THIS SHOULD REINFORCE NW SURFACE WINDS
OVER KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA...LOOKS LIKE A STRONG FRONT
MOVES ON SHORE ALONG THE SW COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG
S TO SE WINDS FROM THE WESTERN CAPES NORTHWARD. AIR TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR FREEZING FROM WESTERN CAPES EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT COOL
FRIDAY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER PRIBILOFS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EASTWARD.  LOOKS AS IF PRIBS WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY SO COULD SEE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TOWARD MORNING. WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY.

WEST...FRONT SHOULD MOVE ON SHORE FRIDAY LATE MORNING. EXPECT STRONG
S TO SE WINDS FROM THE WESTERN CAPES NORTHWARD. AIR TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR FREEZING FROM WESTERN CAPES EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT COOL
FRIDAY EVENING. BLIZZARD WATCHES LOOK GOOD OVERALL...WOULD NOT EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 161 UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING BY WHICH TIME
THE WINDS ARE WESTERLY AND WEAKER.

SOUTHCENTRAL...NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET. CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING REMNANTS OF FRONT IN TO
REGION...SURFACE FORCING LOOKS VERY WEEK WITH MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT.
WOULD NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW SOUTH OF SUSITNA VALLEY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ON SUNDAY YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING FROM THE NO. PAC.  FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA ON SUNDAY GIVES WAY ON MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST. SOME SNOW OR RAIN FOR THE WEST BUT BY THE TIME THIS
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AK RANGE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS IMPACT...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR 155 AND 161
MARINE...SEE PACKAGES
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP FEB 09