High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UKMET/NAM HAVE A BETTER INITIAL REPRESENTATION
OF LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MODELS AND
SAT IMAGERY SHOW TWO DISTINCT LOWS. THOUGH MODELS TEND TO LOSE THIS
RESOLUTION WITH TIME...GENERAL GRADIENTS ARE SIMILAR AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 36 HRS. SAT IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE THE AK PEN WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO COASTAL SW ALASKA. OLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND SE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF.

MAIN PLAYER IS LARGE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. COMPLEX MOVES NORTH
OF THE AK PEN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. EXPECT CENTRAL
PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 960S. LOW THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS SAT AND EVENTUALLY TO EASTERN RUSSIA SUN
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH SW ALASKA TONIGHT
WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO
THE GULF. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF
WILL STALL SAT AS UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE BOUNDARY AND EAST GULF
RIDGE RESISTS FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH HURRICANE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW COMPLEX AND IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT. WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BRISTOL
BAY BY EARLY THIS EVENING...KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
KENAI PEN AND ANCHORAGE BOWL TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT
WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED WITH GAP FLOWS. WINDS OVER SW ALASKA
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS FOR ZONE 155...GOODNEWS BAY TO TOKSOOK BAY.
HIGH TIDES SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AT THE MEAN HIGH WATER LEVELS AND WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A STORM SURGE WHICH WILL RISE WATER LEVELS 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE
MAX ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS AND PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS LACKING AND TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL PRODUCE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SITUATION AND UPDATE STATEMENT AS NECESSARY.

HYDROLOGY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT WILL STALL OVER
THE KENAI PEN AND GULF SAT AND WEAKEN IS PLACE. EXPECT MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN WITH DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL RISE WATER LEVELS RISE SOME TONIGHT AND SAT. HOWEVER...LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH AREAS OF PONDING IN LOW
LYING AREAS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE MAINLAND...WITH NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER THAN THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 101 125 161 AND 171. COASTAL FLOOD
         WATCH ZONE 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 129 141 155 165 179
         STORM WARNING...130 132 138 140 150 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 09