Gale Warning 995, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 240021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR SEWARD WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER COOK INLET THIS
EVENING. A 965 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT THU AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 973 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING E 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO E WIND 25 KT DURING THE
EVENING. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING 
NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NE 25 KT S OF 
KALGIN ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 6 FT
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 
12 FT S OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF
ALASKA IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A NEARLY 200 KT JET RUNNING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 40N LATITUDE. A WEAKENING JET STREAK COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE GULF IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW IN THE
LOW 980 MB RANGE. THIS LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THE DAY AS IT APPROACHES THE KENAI PENINSULA. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR
SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL SHIELD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LONG SOUTHERLY
FETCH OF THE JET STREAM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO A CONSENSUS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW IN
THE GULF. THE MOST LIKELY TRACK CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SEWARD AND MONTAGUE ISLAND. ALL MODELS
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE KENAI PENINSULA...WHICH
SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR THE LOW AS WELL AS THE RUGGED TERRAIN THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CROSSING. THE ONLY DISSENTING MODEL TO THIS TRACK IS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM...WHICH STALLS THE LOW BRIEFLY AND WOBBLES TO THE
NORTH BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE AND MEETING THE SAME FATE OF RAPID
WEAKENING. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS SAMPLING THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS THE BEST OF ALL THE MODELS AND IS THUS ON TO
SOMETHING...THE PREPONDERANCE OF ALL OTHER MODELS HAVING A COMMON
SOLUTION IS HARD TO IGNORE. THE CORRECT SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THE TWO...WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY
INTO COOK INLET...BUT A RESIDUAL WEAK CIRCULATION SPLITTING OFF AND
PERSISTING BRIEFLY NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND. THUS THE MORNING FORECAST
WILL REFLECT A SHIFT TOWARD THE COMMON SOLUTION OF THE
GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...ONSHORE FLOW AND STEADY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW...SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN. THIS MAY ALSO HAPPEN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY IF THE
LOW MOVES INLAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO SUPPORT
SNOW...WITH GREATER THAN 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SOUTH OF
GLENNALLEN BY MIDDAY BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SUSITNA VALLEY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ENOUGH
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR
INTACT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ALASKA
RANGE WHERE LOCAL UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADIER RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW WARNING LEVELS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CORDOVA WHERE
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

.SOUTHWEST/BERING/ALEUTIANS...WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE AND WEAKENING LOW OVER
THE FAR WESTERN BERING WILL KEEP NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHILE ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING LOW SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL BRING
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN GULF. INLAND AREAS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120
         GALE WARNING 125 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 09