Gale Warning 978, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 200013
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.

$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW OF BARREN ISLAND...NE 45 KT DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. SW OF BARREN
ISLAND...SOUTH WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY EXTENDS A
TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, SUSITNA VALLEY AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EXTENDS
A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. A STRONG 964 MB LOW IS
VERTICALLY STACK BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK LOW
JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE NAM DOES A
BETTER JOB IN THE FINE-SCALE FEATURES AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA SATURDAY THEN MOVE INTO SIBERIA SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL SWING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA SUNDAY. A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY. AREA OF SNOW MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST, KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AREAS OF SNOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. ANOTHER
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MORE SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BERING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING
LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 09