Gale Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 271211
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF NIKOLSKI WILL BECOME A 989 MB
LOW NEAR SITKINAK WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
CENTERS IN BOTH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.
INITIALIZATION FOR THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PARTICULARLY POOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTUAL LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
INITIALIZED POSITIONS. PERFORMANCE IS BETTER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HOWEVER...WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. THE 26/12Z GFS IS THE OPERATIONAL MODEL OF
CHOICE THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE A 996 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 56N
146W. A 998 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 50N 174W...OR ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF DEPARTS
INTO CANADA. PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG COOK INLET AND
PARTS OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF THE LOW NEAR ADAK MOVING ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND UP COOK INLET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TREND IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT INSTEAD OF UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW...A WEAK RIDGE IS NOW FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. WITH THIS LOW
TRACK SOUTHCENTRAL COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A DECENT OVERRUNNING EVENT SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE
LOW. ACCORDINGLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. IF MODELS HANG ON TO THIS SOLUTION
IN FUTURE RUNS...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED
FURTHER.

.SOUTHWEST...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AK
PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY...WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALL SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW NEAR ADAK WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CHAIN...REACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...REMAINING ALL SNOW FOR THE PRIBILOFS. AS THE LOW
EXITS TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN PRECIPITATION BULK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRENGTHENING ALEUTIAN LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 170 172 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH JAN 09