Gale Warning 933, NWS Anchorage, AK

586 
FZAK62 PAFC 282346
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 MB GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 52N 165W WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 54N 168W TUE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING LATE WED. A 983 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL TRACK TO 47N 173E WED AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN 
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 291231
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 52N 165W WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
54N 167W TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WED. A
986 MB LOW OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL TRACK TO NEAR 47N 175E WED
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TO 984 MB NEAR 50N 179W BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN 
AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 6 
TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT N OF 57N. E WIND 20 KT S OF 57N. SEAS 6
TO 12 FT...HIGHEST N OF 57N. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

702 
FZAK62 PAFC 292354
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 983 MB LOW NEAR 53N 166W WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WED MORNING. A 989 MB
LOW WILL FORM NEAR 56N 177W TUE NIGHT AND MOVE TO 55N 173E WED NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON FRI.

$$

PKZ411-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TONIGHT...NW TO NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1235 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

CORRECTED TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ASIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ALASKA...WITH EASTERN AREAS
OF ALASKA ON THE WEST PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER
ALBERTA CANADA. A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WITH THREE SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION.
THE ONLY LOW OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A GALE FORCE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS. A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO THE EASTERN BERING
HAS WARMED THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH TRACK OF THE PACIFIC
LOW...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS. MODELS DO DIFFER WITH FORMATION AND TRACK OF TRIPLE
POINT LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FIRST LOW...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE GULF WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WEAK UPPER SHORT-WAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND INTO THE INTERIOR ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ALOFT...SO WILL START TO SEE
SOME SNOW MIX BACK IN WITH THE RAIN. AREAS WHICH OBSERVE SHOWERS
TONIGHT WILL HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG MONDAY MORNING AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS CLEAR OUT...LEAVING BEHIND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE ON TUESDAY
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TOWARD THE NORTH (A DRIER OFFSHORE
FLOW)...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A COOLING
TREND AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AS A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SIMILAR TO SOUTHCENTRAL...UPPER SHORT-WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ON MONDAY THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL STAY OFFSHORE...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES
FALL WILL BE LIGHT. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A DRYING AND
COOLING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...THE PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WINDS TO THE EASTERN BERING REGION...WITH
SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. THE LOW WILL BE FORCED WESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA INTO THE NORTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY
IN UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND ALLOWING
SOME ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN MAINLAND
LATE THIS WEEK. IF SO...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SET-UP FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE CALM WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE MAINLAND. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO
DONT EXPECT ANY MAJOR STORMS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOMETHING ROTATE
NORTHWARD BY THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 09