Gale Warning 922, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 180056
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 60N 149W WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 52N 138W WILL MOVE TO 57N 134W AT 982 MB THU NIGHT.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 181240
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ351-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 190011
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN GULF EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ351-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 191228
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.

$$

PKZ351-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 200000
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201500-
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.

$$

PKZ351-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
945 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

EVENING UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLING IN TO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW...COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...IS SQUEEZING
OUT MORE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAS EVOLVED INTO ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

ONE SNOW BAND HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA INTO THE
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHILE A SECOND ONE IS CLOSER TO THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR BACK OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET. THE INITIAL BAND
IS DROPPING SNOW IN ANCHORAGE AT A RATE OF ABOUT HALF AN INCH AN HOUR
OR LESS. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH BEFORE THE SECOND BAND
INTENSIFIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW TO ANCHORAGE AS THIS NEW LOW MOVES INLAND TO THE EAST OF
SEWARD.

WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS STORM BROUGHT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS
TO EAGLE RIVER AND TAPERED OFF TOWARD WEST ANCHORAGE...THIS WILL BE A
MORE TYPICAL SETUP WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTH AND WEST
ANCHORAGE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP AROUND KACHEMAK BAY...AT
LEAST NOT AT THE HOMER AIRPORT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE HAPPENING ALONG THE BLUFF WHERE HEAVIER SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD COMBINE TO BRING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. SO FOR NOW...WILL
ALLOW THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AB DEC 09

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.......

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE BIG FEATURES. THE
NAM IS DOING WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO LOW IN COOK INLET
THAT IS COMPLETELY MISSED BY ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS. A LOCALLY RUN
MODEL IS SHOWING THAT LOW SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER INLET THIS EVENING
AND BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE KACHEMAK BAY REGION. THERE IS
A WARNING OUT FOR THIS BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THIS EVENT WORKING OUT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW IS IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN
THESE LOW IS INCREASING AND IS RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS OUT OF
CHANNELED TERRAIN IN WESTERN COOK INLET AND KODIAK. THIS COLD
ADVECTION IS ALSO WHAT IS DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MESO LOW IN
COOK INLET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
MID AFTERNOON AND MAT-SU VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH AND THOUGH TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REMAINS THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA
WHERE THE SUBTLE MOVEMENTS OF THE MESO LOW IN COOK INLET WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THAT AREA WILL GET BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...OR VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS SHOULD
BE LOWER RESULTING IN WINDS CHILLS THAT ARE NOT AS SEVERE AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE COOLER AIR THAT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
STATE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE AS
THE LOW RETROGRADES NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW COVERS
MUCH OF THE STATE.  MEANWHILE...OUT WEST STRONG WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED DUE TO THE BERING LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 121.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 175 180
    STORM 130 176
    HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165
179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 09