Gale Warning 890, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251241
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 170 NM NORTHWEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 971 MB WED EVENING...THEN MOVE TO AROUND 90 NM NORTH
OF COLD BAY AT 980 MB THU EVENING...BEFORE MOVING ASHORE THE SOUTHERN
AKPEN EARLY FRI MORNING. A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 220 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL THU EVENING...AND MOVE TO AROUND 160 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT
983 MB FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W OF SAND POINT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF SAND POINT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DECREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 


$$

PKZ165-260300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W OF PORT MOLLER...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF CAPE MENDENHALL. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF CAPE MENDENHALL. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT PACIFIC SIDE...14 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT PACIFIC SIDE...14 FT BERING
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT PACIFIC SIDE...17 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT PACIFIC SIDE...20 FT BERING
SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 55 KT TOWARDS EVENING. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 31 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...23 FT BERING SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT . SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT BY EVENING. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...8 FT
E. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...10
FT E. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

.ANALYSIS/UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER ALL OF ALASKA...KEEPING THE
REGION IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN. THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE MOST IMPRESSIVE HAS MATURED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALONG THE 150W MERIDIAN AND IS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE GULF. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MUCH SMALLER...LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AN ELONGATED AND QUITE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WHICH WILL BE A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST TOMORROW. THE LAST LOW OUT WEST IS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW THAT IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE
OCCLUDED LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GULF. THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IS
GOING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE MID
TERM REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OUT WEST. AS THE
LOW OCCLUDES...THE MAIN ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO A NORTH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BEING
EJECTED FROM THE JET AND WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THIS IS A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO WHEN ALL THE
MODELS...EXCEPT THE ECMWF...PLACED A 966 MB LOW AT 00Z FRIDAY NEAR
BETHEL. NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS
A DOUBLE HEADED LOW...THE WEAKER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE SECOND
STRONGER ONE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KODIAK AND MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM AND THE MID TERM LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKE
IT INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THE OLD OCCLUSION FROM THE DISSIPATING
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...SPREADING SNOW FROM
KODIAK ISLAND TO THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM HOMER TO ANCHORAGE AND THE SOUTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BRIEFLY BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THURSDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE
AREAS MENTIONED WITH MORE EXPECTED IN THE POPULAR WINTER RECREATIONAL
HOT SPOTS OF TURNAGAIN PASS AND GIRDWOOD. LIMITING FACTORS OF THIS
STORM WILL BE THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ITS SPEED...OTHERWISE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...NOT BEFORE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO VALDEZ.

SOUTHWEST...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO THE REGION. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
FROM ILIAMNA NORTHWARD. SNOW ENTERS THE PICTURE AREA WIDE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DOUBLE HEADED LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY
AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...POTENT SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE
PRIBILOFS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW AS BUOY 35 AND 70 REPORTED GALE FORCE GUSTS
AFTER FROPA. BEHIND THIS LOW...EYES TURN WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR SHEMYA. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT FEELING CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS TO ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT LIVED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXISTS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY THE PRIBILOFS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING AND WINDS WILL REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING A
SHORT PERIOD OF VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE SO WILL WORD THE FORECAST
TOWARD THAT WITHOUT ISSUING A WATCH OR WARNING. IF THE SPEED CHANGES
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE
THE WATCH/WARNING BASED ON THE NEW MODEL DATA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 172 175 176
         GALES 120 130 132 150 155 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 09